Friday, May 20, 2011

Looketh not, if thou art faint of heart

Miguel Tejada went 2-4 in last night's game, which puts him at 7-16 in his last four games. This is good, especially considering how horrible he had been in May prior to this little stretch. But while it's wonderful to see him above the Mendoza line again, the composition of his hits aren't exactly impressive: 1 double, 6 singles.

If you're looking for a sign that Miggy is breaking out of his slump, I don't think you've seen it quite yet. He's been due a little good BABIP luck for a while (his recent streak has brought him to a .235 BABIP), and this recent collection of hits could be his bad luck evening out a bit.

But any real signs that he's turning it around would be in the following categories:
  • More walks. Miggy has never been an on-base machine or anything, but 6 walks in 155 plate appearances is throw-up-in-my-mouth-a-little territory. The only time in his career he was this bad at drawing a walk was in Houston (2008 & 2009), but there he was hitting for decent-to-good average, so at least his on-base % was over .300. But this will only get better if Miggy sees...
  • More pitches. The last time Miggy was this impatient at the plate was...well, just last year during his time with Baltimore, which saw him perform poorly enough to be traded for a AA pitcher. Seeing only 3.3 pitches per plate appearance isn't giving yourself much chance to draw a walk or see a pitch in your hitting zone.
  • More power. Miggy has had essentially no power this year. He's hit just one HR and 7 doubles, and correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think those doubles have been anything other than line shots...so, none of them have been the result of balls hit into the gaps. His IsoP, at just .067, is easily the worst of his career.
  • More fly balls. Miggy's g/f ratio is 1.18, which isn't a huge deal in and of itself, but it is his highest ratio of ground balls to fly balls hit in his career -- for most of his career he's been under 1.00.
Any of those could be signs of a declining, aging player, but all four at once is a sign of a player that is pretty much finished. His line drive % is 12.8, which is absolutely horrible, and really takes away much of the bad luck BABIP excuse -- if he isn't hitting many line drives, we can't really expect much progression to the mean for his BABIP.

I'll continue to have my fingers crossed, but I'm just wondering what contingency plan Brian Sabean has if Tejada keeps this up well into June...and around the time Pablo Sandoval might return.

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