Will a Sophomore Slump Strike?

One of the old addages of baseball is how hard it is to repeat as champions because everyone is gunning for you. But there might just be a little more tangible reasoning behind the difficulty than every opponent is trying a little harder because there's a really cool trophy at AT&T Park.

We live in an era of pitch counts. Pitches and innings are monitored more closely than Barrack Obama's tax return. The average starter seldom goes much past six innings, and the elite guys rarely see the eighth inning unless they're having a hell of a night. Younger pitchers are even touchier. College guys see 60 games before the postseason. That's a lot less innings than there are in 162 games. Minor leaguers are done at the dawn of September. That's a lot less innings, too.

For a team buyoed by many young arms that aren't used to throwing well in excess of 200 innings, especially when you include a post-season run, it's hard to not worry about the ramifications. Looking back at recent history, it's hard to recall a team that was so reliant on young starting pitching during a World Series run. Most champions have a more balanced line-up. And the young arms threw a lot more innings than they're used to. Consdier a few of the Giants key starters and their innings pitched in 2010, 2009 and 2008:

• Tim Lincecum (2010 IP including postseason - 238, 2009 - 225, 2008 - 227)


• Matt Cain (244, 217, 217)


• Jonathan Sanchez (212, 163, 158)

All three of these pitchers were between 25 and 27 years old, all had ERAs between 3.00 and 3.50.

Looking back at three recent World Series young guns, you the drop off the following year is obvious: (note: I didn't include C.C. Sabathia, who even though is in the same age range, was a fairly established starter at that point and I didn't include anyone from the Cardinals' WS squad since the only young pitcher among their starters was Jason Marquis, and he was hardly their Cy Young candidate.)

Of all of these pitchers, only Dice-K managed an improvement the following year, but he has been on the decline ever since. Of the others, only Brett Myers managed an ERA even close to that of his world series year, but injuries kept him under 100 innings.

If recent history is any indicator, it's unlikely that any of the trifecta of Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez will repeat their performance in 2011. Hopefully, the slightly tweaked line-up will be able to put together enough to offer more consistent help to the staff.